2026-08-25 · open

The same four rails as every run this week, unchanged, and every price and level trigger swept clear. Two findings are in the documents rather than the market. The runbook's MU roll trigger tells you to buy back a 1400 call the book does not hold: the collar actually filled at 1740/900 on 08-17, and three other docs already say so, so that row cannot be executed as written. And the 11x Dec-28 300/400 call spread the runbook describes is one spread, not eleven, because ten of the eleven short 400s netted against legacy longs on 08-17. Neither fires a rail today. Sell side: Morgan Stanley maintains GOOGL at $400, Mizuho cuts MU to $1,300 from $1,375.

What to do

Still over, unchanged

Why each one reads the way it does

Everything else clear

All 15 triggers swept, with today's number
price triggernowfires atdistance
GOOGL · tranche 3 confirm$349.00≥ $3603.2% up
GOOGL · tranche 2 weakness$349.00≤ $3179.2% down
GOOGL · thesis break$349.00≤ $28019.8% down
GOOGL · Rule 6 close shorts$349.00≥ $43424.4% up
GOOGL · crash / Rule 8$349.00≤ $26025.5% down
MU · collar roll$936.71≥ $1,25033.4% up
level triggernowfires atdistance
Dec-28 30-delta put IV36.5%> 50%+13.5 pt
Dec-28 30-delta put IV36.5%> 43%+6.5 pt
excess liquidity / NLV74.9%< 40%-34.9 pt
widest long call spread43.2% of width (Dec-28 300/400)>= 90% of width+46.8 pt
Dec-28 340P extrinsic$57.36< $5far (put is OTM, spot $349.00 above the $340 strike)
NLV drawdown, 1 week+1.5% against the 08-20 logged NLV-8% in a weekfar
calendardateaway
wash-sale window opens for the 6/05 loss lots2026-09-1723d
deploy the $100k reserve at market regardless2026-10-2965d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 92027-03-13200d
Spot prices
lastday
GOOG$345.60+0.2%
GOOGL$349.00+0.3%
MU$936.71+2.9%
AMZN$262.09+0.1%
BRK B$502.64-0.3%
DIS$110.45-0.1%
EQT$53.53-0.5%
INTC$89.62+2.7%
META$568.27+1.6%
NVDA$211.89+1.4%
RDDT$155.20+1.6%
TSLA$350.50+0.3%
VOO$704.50+0.4%

What other people said

Every call filed today
whoactiontargetwhen
Morgan Stanley · Brian Nowak
No rationale text printed on the page. The action is logged as a maintain with pt_now $400 and pt_old null, so the number did not move; it is the same $400 Morgan Stanley carried on 2026-07-23, re-dated. It sits $28 below the sell-side mean.
GOOGLMaintains Buy$4002026-08-25
Mizuho Securities · Vijay Rakesh
No published rationale reached the aggregator rows; only the rating action and the target printed. Neither page mentions the Netlist ITC action that took MU down 5.6% yesterday. The two aggregators disagree on the rating label: stockanalysis calls it Buy, MarketBeat calls the same action Outperform.
MULowers target, rating held$1,300, from $1,3752026-08-25
Daniel Jones · Seeking Alpha
Alphabet remains a buy despite recent underperformance, on revenue, profit and cash flow growth. Google Cloud nearly doubled revenue year over year with margins expanding from 20.7% to 35.6%, and contributed 20.7% of Q2 revenue and 18.2% of segment profits. Search and YouTube ads keep delivering. Shares are not cheap and trade at a premium on some metrics, but industry leadership, balance sheet strength and diversified growth justify staying bullish.
GOOGLBuy maintainednone stated2026-08-25
consensussourcetargetanalysts
GOOGLstockanalysis$428.0764Unchanged from 08-20. 54 of the 64 contribute a target; median $429, range $340 to $515.
GOOGLmarketbeat$420.1954Unchanged from 08-20.
GOOGLfinviz$426.68-Unchanged from 08-20. Analyst count not printed.
MUstockanalysis$1,515.0047Unchanged from 08-24. Range $361 to $2,200 - the sell side still does not agree on this name.
MUmarketbeat$1,258.8439Was $1,261.26 on 08-24, same 39 analysts. The Mizuho cut is the move.
MUfinviz$1,571.68-Was $1,573.28 on 08-24. Analyst count not printed.

Cost of compute

Every rate, per chip and per source

Dollars per GPU-hour. Vast is a marketplace floor and runs well below contract rates, which is what the cloud and hyperscaler columns are there to show. Bold rows are current generation.

vastcloudhyperakashn
H100 SXM$2.33$4.19$7.89$2.7132
H100 NVL$2.68---8 thin
H200$4.04$4.50$10.44$4.4526
B200$7.25$7.88$15.18-36
A100 SXM4$0.83$2.00$3.67$1.7136
A100 PCIE$0.84---39
L40S$0.53---13
RTX 4090$0.37---63
RTX 5090$0.40---64

H100 by source. SFCompute clearing price $1.98. Composite is $2.82 as of 2026-04 (PRE-SIGNAL tightening; fetched 2026-08-18, which was the latest print SemiAnalysis had published).

sourcenow24h avgday
vast median$2.33$2.18+20.7%
sfcompute$1.98$1.98+1.0%
getdeploying$4.19-+0.0%
akash$2.71$2.71+0.0%

The check itself

Rails that could not be evaluated
Where the numbers came from