2026-08-24 · open

The same four rails, unchanged. The runbook swept clear. The event of the morning is outside the rails: MU is down 5.6% on a Netlist ITC patent action over its DDR5 memory modules, and MU has no written rule, so nothing is proposed against it.

What to do

280P x5 sit above the $260 long-leg ceiling.
BUY TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT / SELL TO CLOSE 5 GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT
one spread, limit, day · ~$18,422 debit ($36.84 net per spread at this morning's marks)
Your playbook: “long leg never above $260 (must sit at/above the $230-250 floor zone, never below $230 where protection stops paying before history bottoms)”
Same standing order as prior runs, repriced to this morning's marks (was $36.76 net on 08-21). The 8x Dec-28 300P also trip this rail and are the separate matter. No order is proposed against them.

Still over, unchanged

These fire every run until you act on them. No order attached.
rail now limit
program_cap $175,059 $100,000 cap 1.8x, $75,059 over
gross_leverage 1.739x 1.50 red / 1.30 amber red
net_cash / NLV -0.069 -0.05 amber / -0.10 red amber

rail	now	limit
program_cap	$175,059	$100,000 cap	1.8x, $75,059 over
gross_leverage	1.739x	1.50 red / 1.30 amber	red
net_cash / NLV	-0.069	-0.05 amber / -0.10 red	amber

Why each one reads the way it does

program_cap
Identical to prior runs to the dollar. Defined max loss is a function of strikes and entry credits, not current marks, so it moves only when a position actually closes. Nothing closed.
gross_leverage
The IPS row this proxies measures total DELTA notional / NLV; this rail measures GROSS position value. rails.json carries the note '1.57 at signing on gross; true delta leverage ~1.0x'. A red here is not the same statement as the policy row being red.
net_cash / NLV
Cash is -$97,114 on NLV $1,402,162. Cash is unchanged from the prior run to the dollar; the ratio moved only because NLV fell. Signed at -14.8% and already red that day, so this is the improved end of a known accepted state.

Everything else clear

Nearest trigger is tranche 3 confirm at $360, 4% away.

All 15 triggers swept, with today's number

price trigger	now	fires at	distance
GOOGL · tranche 3 confirm	$347.56	≥ $360	3.6% up
GOOGL · tranche 2 weakness	$347.56	≤ $317	8.8% down
GOOGL · thesis break	$347.56	≤ $280	19.4% down
GOOGL · Rule 6 close shorts	$347.56	≥ $434	24.9% up
GOOGL · crash / Rule 8	$347.56	≤ $260	25.2% down
MU · collar roll	$912.69	≥ $1,250	37.0% up

level trigger	now	fires at	distance
Dec-28 30-delta put IV	36.8%	> 50%	+13.2 pt
Dec-28 30-delta put IV	36.8%	> 43%	+6.2 pt
excess liquidity / NLV	75.0%	< 40%	-35.0 pt
widest long call spread	42.5%	>= 90% of width	+47.5 pt
Dec-28 340P extrinsic	$57.66	< $5	far (put is OTM, spot $347.56 above the $340 strike)
NLV drawdown, 1 week	-0.78% from the 08-21 peak	-8% in a week	far

calendar	date	away
wash-sale window opens for the 6/05 loss lots	2026-09-17	24d
deploy the $100k reserve at market regardless	2026-10-29	66d
GOOG lots vest long-term, add collar put leg 9	2027-03-13	201d

Spot prices

	last	day
GOOG	$344.64	+0.8%
GOOGL	$347.56	+0.8%
MU	$912.69	-5.6%
AMZN	$262.02	+1.3%
BRK B	$499.79	+0.8%
DIS	$109.32	+1.4%
EQT	$54.08	+0.7%
INTC	$86.67	-3.8%
META	$551.91	+0.4%
NVDA	$212.92	-0.8%
RDDT	$152.25	-0.7%
TSLA	$353.62	-2.5%
VOO	$701.85	-0.3%

What other people said

BMO Capital Markets on MU: initiates outperform, $1,300.
Louis Gerard on MU: downgrades to hold, none stated.
8 new calls filed, none came due to score.
All four Seeking Alpha pieces are free-tier partial captures: Summary bullets and an opening fragment rendered, the bodies did not. None of the four states a price target, so all four are filed with a null target and an assumed 12-month horizon. The BMO date is disputed between sources by one day. The r/wallstreetbets pass returned nothing filable: no post on GOOGL or MU between 08-20 and today states a price target, an option structure or a written thesis.

Every call filed today

who		action	target	when
BMO Capital Markets · initiation No published rationale reached the aggregator rows; only the rating and the target printed. The target sits below two of the three consensus prints, so this is a new bull whose number is under the crowd's.	MU	Initiates Outperform	$1,300	2026-08-21
Louis Gerard · Seeking Alpha Stretched valuation and intensifying competition. The earnings surge is driven almost entirely by price increases, not volume, which puts earnings durability at risk if pricing weakens. SK hynix and Samsung offer better capital returns at lower multiples. Patent litigation risk, Chinese NAND/DRAM supply expansion and decelerating memory price growth pressure the forward outlook.	MU	Downgrades to Hold	none stated	2026-08-23
Hunting Alphas · Seeking Alpha DRAM stays tighter for longer than NAND, which suits a 76% DRAM-weighted portfolio. HBM TAM projected past $100B in 2027 with DRAM tightness through 2027 and beyond. Valuation sits near the longer-term median EV/EBITDA despite the price volatility, and the multi-month chart is still a healthy uptrend.	MU	Bullish, hold through the drop	none stated	2026-08-24
Rick Orford · Seeking Alpha Video segment. Points past HBM to a record $5B+ quarterly data-centre SSD line and an AI-driven NAND boom, plus a buyback window opening December 2026.	MU	Strong Buy	none stated	2026-08-24
Rick Orford · Seeking Alpha Thesis shifts to off-balance-sheet AI infrastructure funding: $250B of TPU joint ventures with Blackstone, Apollo and Broadcom expand AI hardware without loading the balance sheet. Cloud margin reached 35.6% on Q2 cloud revenue up 82% with operating income tripling. Capital raises and new preferred stock add dilution and a 6.25% dividend, offset by the cash position.	GOOGL	Strong Buy maintained	none stated	2026-08-20

consensus	source	target	analysts
MU	stockanalysis	$1,515.00	47	Strong Buy. Range $361 to $2,200 - the sell side does not agree on this name.
MU	marketbeat	$1,261.26	39	Was $1,259.97 across 37 analysts on 08-20. BMO is one of the two added; the second was not identifiable.
MU	finviz	$1,573.28	-	Analyst count not printed.
GOOGL	stockanalysis	$428.07	-	Unchanged from 08-20.
GOOGL	marketbeat	$420.19	54	Unchanged from 08-20.
GOOGL	finviz	$426.68	-	Unchanged from 08-20.

Cost of compute

H100 spot $1.93 against the $2.82 monthly composite. No tripwire.
A100 SXM4 fell 14.0% on the day to $0.80 and A100 PCIE fell 11.8% to $0.82, both on deep books (46 and 32 listings). The older parts are where a glut shows up first, which is why those rows are carried.
No tripwire. The 20%-vs-90-days test could not run: the daily series is not yet 90 days long, so the script reports the 7, 30 and 90 day windows as n/a and the three averages all read $2.51 because they cover the same short span. Read today's move against the 24h average, not against those.

Every rate, per chip and per source

Dollars per GPU-hour. Vast is a marketplace floor and runs well below contract rates, which is what the cloud and hyperscaler columns are there to show. Bold rows are current generation.

	vast	cloud	hyper	akash	n
H100 SXM	$1.93	$4.19	$7.89	$2.71	28
H100 NVL	$2.64	-	-	-	10
H200	$4.00	$4.50	$10.44	$4.45	26
B200	$6.63	$7.88	$15.18	-	17
A100 SXM4	$0.80	$2.00	$3.67	$1.67	46
A100 PCIE	$0.82	-	-	-	32
L40S	$0.53	-	-	-	19
RTX 4090	$0.37	-	-	-	64
RTX 5090	$0.40	-	-	-	64

H100 by source. SFCompute clearing price $1.96. Composite is $2.82 as of 2026-04 (PRE-SIGNAL tightening; fetched 2026-08-18, which was the latest print SemiAnalysis had published).

source	now	24h avg	day
vast median	$1.93	$2.14	-3.5%
sfcompute	$1.96	$1.95	+2.6%
getdeploying	$4.19	-	+0.0%
akash	$2.71	$2.71	+0.0%

The check itself

never worked rails.py tests every GOOGL price level against the GOOG quote.
rails.json lists the campaign underlyings as ["GOOG", "GOOGL"] and rails.py takes the first one that has a quote, then breaks. So thesis_break, t2_weakness, t3_confirmation, washout_buy, no_chase, rule6_close_shorts and rule8_crash_powder are all measured against GOOG. Every one of those levels is written as a GOOGL level: the runbook header says 'Reference price: GOOGL $347' and Part 2 says 'GOOGL closes >= $434'. This morning GOOG is $344.64 and GOOGL is $347.56, a 0.85% gap, so the script reads tranche 3 as 4.5% away while against GOOGL it is 3.6% away. No rail has flipped on this yet. This page shows the GOOGL number, matching the docs; the script's own output uses GOOG. This run does not edit rails.json.
will happen again get_price_snapshot returns an empty prior_close for every ticker.
All 13 tickers came back with 'prior-close': {} this run, including EQT, which was the one that populated it on 08-21. Worked around the same way as before: re-request with the 'change' field and derive prior close as last minus change. Cross-checked against the broker's own daily bars, where MU's 08-21 close of $966.78 matches the derived prior close exactly. Costs one extra round of connector calls every run.
fixed today Runbook Part 3 'NLV falls 8%+ in one week' is now evaluable.
The NLV series in rails-log.jsonl now holds 2026-08-20 through today. Peak was $1,413,139 on 08-21 against $1,402,162 now, a 0.78% drawdown against the -8% trigger. The window is four sessions, not a full week; the first true seven-day reading lands 2026-08-27.
source broke Both prescribed r/wallstreetbets discovery routes are dead, and a working replacement was found.
prompts/markets.md section 5 names two routes verified 2026-08-11. Both failed today. DuckDuckGo HTML (html.duckduckgo.com/html/) now returns a bot-check challenge on every attempt through curl and WebFetch. WebSearch restricted to reddit.com fails outright with 'the following domains are not accessible to our user agent' - reddit.com's robots.txt blocks the crawler, so no permalink can be surfaced that way, and unrestricted queries return only second-hand write-ups. Direct WebFetch of www.reddit.com is refused, matching the JSON-403 pattern the prompt already documents. What did work is the Arctic Shift archive API (arctic-shift.photon-reddit.com/api/posts/search), which returns full post objects with id, title, selftext, created_utc, score and num_comments, filterable by subreddit and date. It was cross-validated against the embed host on post 1vtenpy: Arctic Shift's created_utc of 1787218387 and score of 25 match the embed page's faceplate-timeago 2026-08-20T09:33:07 and faceplate-number 25 exactly. Reported rather than adopted: the prompt says to say so instead of substituting silently, so markets.md still carries the two dead routes until Gabriel decides. One known limit of the replacement is that its search reads title and selftext text only, so a post carrying its target inside a screenshot is invisible to it.

Rails that could not be evaluated

stressed_excess_liquidity - needs IBKR Risk Navigator (-30% price, +50% IV) with the TWS gateway up. Never yet measured.
top2_name_delta_ratio - needs per-leg option deltas, which summary.json does not carry. ~0.90 at signing and already red.
short_dec28_340p_extrinsic - rails.json still classes this unmeasured pending a live Dec-2028 chain pull, but the position mark answers it: $57.66 of extrinsic against the <$5 watch, and the put is out of the money.
GPU 7, 30 and 90 day windows read n/a because the daily series is too short. The 20%-in-a-quarter tripwire cannot be tested until the series reaches 90 days.
The SemiAnalysis monthly composite anchor is the 2026-04 print, four months behind today. That is the source's own publication lag as of the 2026-08-18 fetch, not a missed append; the next monthly fetch is due on the first 6:35 run of September.
r/wallstreetbets sweep found no qualifying post on GOOGL or MU for 08-20 to 08-24. Posts that name the tickers are about AAOI or MRAM, or are sentiment with no stated target, strike or thesis. Image-only YOLO posts cannot be read by the text search used, so this is a floor rather than a certainty.

Where the numbers came from

IBKR connector: get_account_positions, get_account_summary, 14 get_price_snapshot calls plus the Dec-28 340P IV, and 2 get_price_history calls for prior closes
scripts/investing/rails.py against investing/rails.json
investing/googl-mu-runbook.md Parts 2-4
scripts/investing/gpu_spot.py (Vast, getdeploying, Akash, SFCompute; SemiAnalysis composite from investing/gpu-spot-semianalysis.csv)
Seeking Alpha via Gabriel's Chrome; stockanalysis.com, marketbeat.com and finviz.com headless